Single poll

INSA poll of 21 December 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
15 to 19 Dec 2025
Respondents
1,201
Method
Telefon & Online
  • AfD26.0%±0
  • CDU/CSU24.0%-1.0
  • SPD14.0%±0
  • Grüne12.0%+1.5
  • Linke11.0%+0.5
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%-0.5
  • Others5.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2025.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 15 to 19 Dec 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2025, Grüne gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Dec 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.4average 25.4
  • Linke +0.7average 10.3
  • AfD +0.4average 25.6
  • FDP +0.4average 3.6
  • BSW +0.4average 3.6
  • Grüne -0.2average 12.2
  • SPD -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 188 seatsCDU/CSU: 174 seatsSPD: 101 seatsGrüne: 87 seatsLinke: 80 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD188
  • CDU/CSU174
  • SPD101
  • Grüne87
  • Linke80
  • AfD + CDU/CSU362 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne376 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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