INSA poll of 21 December 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 19 Dec 2025
- Respondents
- 1,201
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD26.0%±0
- CDU/CSU24.0%-1.0
- SPD14.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%+1.5
- Linke11.0%+0.5
- FDP4.0%±0
- BSW4.0%-0.5
- Others5.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2025.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 15 to 19 Dec 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2025, Grüne gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Dec 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 25.4
- Linke +0.7average 10.3
- AfD +0.4average 25.6
- FDP +0.4average 3.6
- BSW +0.4average 3.6
- Grüne -0.2average 12.2
- SPD -0.1average 14.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD188
- CDU/CSU174
- SPD101
- Grüne87
- Linke80
- AfD + CDU/CSU362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne376 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne362 of 630
- AfD + Grüne + Linke355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.