Single poll

INSA poll of 14 October 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
10 to 13 Oct 2025
Respondents
2,008
Method
Online
  • AfD26.5%+0.5
  • CDU/CSU25.0%+1.0
  • SPD14.0%±0
  • Grüne11.5%-0.5
  • Linke10.5%-0.5
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • Others4.5%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Oct 2025.

In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 26.5%, followed by CDU/CSU on 25.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 10 to 13 Oct 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 Oct 2025, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.2average 25.3
  • SPD -0.8average 14.8
  • CDU/CSU -0.7average 25.7
  • FDP +0.6average 3.4
  • Grüne +0.2average 11.3
  • Linke +0.1average 10.4
  • BSW +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

AfD: 191 seatsCDU/CSU: 180 seatsSPD: 101 seatsGrüne: 83 seatsLinke: 75 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • AfD191
  • CDU/CSU180
  • SPD101
  • Grüne83
  • Linke75
  • AfD + CDU/CSU371 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne364 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke356 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke349 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke338 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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