INSA poll of 4 October 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Sep 2025 to 2 Oct 2025
- Respondents
- 1,186
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- AfD26.0%±0
- CDU/CSU24.0%-1.0
- SPD14.0%-1.5
- Linke12.0%+1.0
- Grüne11.0%-0.5
- FDP4.0%+1.0
- BSW4.0%±0
- Others5.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Sep 2025.
In this poll INSA has AfD ahead on 26.0%, followed by CDU/CSU on 24.0%. 1,186 people were surveyed from 29 Sep 2025 to 2 Oct 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Sep 2025, SPD loses 1.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.0 points lower and Linke 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Oct 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.0average 26.0
- Linke +1.6average 10.4
- SPD -0.8average 14.8
- AfD +0.7average 25.3
- FDP +0.7average 3.3
- Grüne -0.2average 11.2
- BSW +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- AfD188
- CDU/CSU174
- SPD101
- Linke87
- Grüne80
- AfD + CDU/CSU362 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Linke376 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne369 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke362 of 630
- AfD + Linke + Grüne355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne355 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Linke + Grüne341 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.