Single poll

INSA poll of 16 August 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
11 to 15 Aug 2025
Respondents
1,206
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%-1.0
  • AfD25.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%+0.5
  • Grüne11.0%+0.5
  • Linke9.0%-0.5
  • FDP4.0%+0.5
  • BSW4.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Aug 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,206 people were surveyed from 11 to 15 Aug 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Aug 2025, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Aug 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke -1.1average 10.1
  • Grüne -1.0average 12.0
  • AfD +0.9average 24.1
  • CDU/CSU -0.8average 26.8
  • SPD +0.7average 14.3
  • FDP +0.5average 3.5
  • BSW +0.3average 3.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 190 seatsAfD: 183 seatsSPD: 110 seatsGrüne: 81 seatsLinke: 66 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU190
  • AfD183
  • SPD110
  • Grüne81
  • Linke66
  • CDU/CSU + AfD373 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne381 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne374 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke366 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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