Single poll

INSA poll of 26 July 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
21 to 25 Jul 2025
Respondents
1,203
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-0.5
  • AfD24.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%+1.0
  • Grüne11.0%+0.5
  • Linke10.0%-0.5
  • BSW4.0%-0.5
  • FDP3.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jul 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,203 people were surveyed from 21 to 25 Jul 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jul 2025, SPD gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 26 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -0.9average 11.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.6average 27.6
  • SPD +0.6average 14.4
  • AfD +0.4average 23.6
  • Linke -0.4average 10.4
  • FDP -0.3average 3.3
  • BSW +0.2average 3.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 195 seatsAfD: 174 seatsSPD: 109 seatsGrüne: 80 seatsLinke: 72 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU195
  • AfD174
  • SPD109
  • Grüne80
  • Linke72
  • CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne384 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke376 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne363 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke347 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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