Single poll

INSA poll of 22 July 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
18 to 21 Jul 2025
Respondents
2,005
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU27.5%+0.5
  • AfD24.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%-1.0
  • Grüne10.5%-0.5
  • Linke10.5%-0.5
  • BSW4.5%-0.5
  • FDP3.5%+0.5
  • Others5.5%+1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Jul 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.5%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 2,005 people were surveyed from 18 to 21 Jul 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Jul 2025, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.5 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.5average 12.0
  • BSW +0.7average 3.8
  • AfD +0.6average 23.4
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 27.9
  • SPD -0.4average 14.4
  • Linke +0.2average 10.3
  • FDP +0.2average 3.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 200 seatsAfD: 175 seatsSPD: 102 seatsGrüne: 77 seatsLinke: 76 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU200
  • AfD175
  • SPD102
  • Grüne77
  • Linke76
  • CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke378 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke353 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke353 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke328 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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