Single poll

INSA poll of 19 July 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
14 to 18 Jul 2025
Respondents
1,205
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU27.0%-0.5
  • AfD24.0%+0.5
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • Linke11.0%+0.5
  • BSW5.0%+0.5
  • FDP3.0%-0.5
  • Others4.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Jul 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 27.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 14 to 18 Jul 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Jul 2025, no party moves by more than one point.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 19 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +1.2average 3.8
  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 28.0
  • Grüne -1.0average 12.0
  • Linke +0.9average 10.1
  • AfD +0.7average 23.3
  • SPD +0.6average 14.4
  • FDP -0.4average 3.4
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 183 seatsAfD: 163 seatsSPD: 102 seatsGrüne: 74 seatsLinke: 74 seatsBSW: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU183
  • AfD163
  • SPD102
  • Grüne74
  • Linke74
  • BSW34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke359 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne339 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke331 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.