Single poll

INSA poll of 5 July 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
30 Jun 2025 to 4 Jul 2025
Respondents
1,205
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU28.0%±0
  • AfD24.0%+0.5
  • SPD15.0%-0.5
  • Grüne11.0%-0.5
  • Linke11.0%+1.5
  • FDP4.0%+0.5
  • BSW4.0%-1.0
  • Others3.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Jul 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 28.0%, followed by AfD on 24.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 30 Jun 2025 to 4 Jul 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Jul 2025, Linke gains 1.5 points, BSW loses 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jul 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +1.2average 9.8
  • AfD +1.1average 22.9
  • FDP +0.8average 3.2
  • Grüne -0.7average 11.7
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 28.3
  • SPD +0.1average 14.9
  • BSW +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 198 seatsAfD: 170 seatsSPD: 106 seatsGrüne: 78 seatsLinke: 78 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU198
  • AfD170
  • SPD106
  • Grüne78
  • Linke78
  • CDU/CSU + AfD368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne382 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke382 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke354 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne354 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke354 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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