Single poll

INSA poll of 20 May 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
16 to 19 May 2025
Respondents
2,008
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%±0
  • AfD24.5%-0.5
  • SPD15.5%-0.5
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • FDP3.5%+0.5
  • Others5.5%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 May 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 24.5%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 16 to 19 May 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 May 2025, no party moves by more than one point.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -0.6average 11.6
  • AfD +0.5average 24.0
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 26.4
  • SPD +0.1average 15.4
  • FDP -0.1average 3.6
  • Linke ±0average 10.0
  • BSW ±0average 4.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 188 seatsAfD: 178 seatsSPD: 112 seatsGrüne: 80 seatsLinke: 72 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU188
  • AfD178
  • SPD112
  • Grüne80
  • Linke72
  • CDU/CSU + AfD366 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne380 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne370 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke340 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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