Single poll

INSA poll of 16 May 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
12 to 16 May 2025
Respondents
1,205
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU26.0%+1.0
  • AfD25.0%+0.5
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • FDP3.0%-0.5
  • Others5.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 May 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 26.0%, followed by AfD on 25.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 12 to 16 May 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 12 May 2025, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +0.7average 24.3
  • SPD +0.5average 15.5
  • Grüne -0.5average 11.5
  • FDP -0.5average 3.5
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 26.3
  • Linke +0.1average 9.9
  • BSW -0.1average 4.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 186 seatsAfD: 179 seatsSPD: 114 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsLinke: 72 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU186
  • AfD179
  • SPD114
  • Grüne79
  • Linke72
  • CDU/CSU + AfD365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne372 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke337 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke330 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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