Single poll

INSA poll of 12 May 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
9 to 12 May 2025
Respondents
2,004
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU25.0%±0
  • AfD24.5%+0.5
  • SPD16.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • Linke10.0%±0
  • BSW4.0%±0
  • FDP3.5%-0.5
  • Others6.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 May 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 25.0%, followed by AfD on 24.5%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 9 to 12 May 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 10 May 2025, no party moves by more than one point.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 May 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 26.0
  • SPD +0.6average 15.4
  • Grüne -0.6average 11.6
  • AfD +0.2average 24.3
  • FDP -0.2average 3.7
  • Linke -0.1average 10.1
  • BSW +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 182 seatsAfD: 178 seatsSPD: 117 seatsGrüne: 80 seatsLinke: 73 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU182
  • AfD178
  • SPD117
  • Grüne80
  • Linke73
  • CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne379 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne375 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke372 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke368 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke335 of 630
  • AfD + Grüne + Linke331 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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