Single poll

INSA poll of 4 March 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
28 Feb 2025 to 3 Mar 2025
Respondents
2,002
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.5%-0.5
  • AfD22.0%±0
  • SPD15.5%+0.5
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • Linke9.5%+0.5
  • BSW5.0%±0
  • FDP3.5%-0.5
  • Others4.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Mar 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 28 Feb 2025 to 3 Mar 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Mar 2025, no party moves by more than one point.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Linke 2.3 points higher and Grüne 2.0 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Mar 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Linke +2.3average 7.2
  • Grüne -2.0average 13.0
  • AfD +1.5average 20.5
  • FDP -0.7average 4.2
  • BSW +0.6average 4.4
  • CDU/CSU -0.4average 29.9
  • SPD +0.2average 15.3
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 201 seatsAfD: 150 seatsSPD: 105 seatsGrüne: 75 seatsLinke: 65 seatsBSW: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU201
  • AfD150
  • SPD105
  • Grüne75
  • Linke65
  • BSW34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne381 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Linke371 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke341 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW340 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne330 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Linke320 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.