Single poll

INSA poll of 3 February 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
31 Jan 2025 to 3 Feb 2025
Respondents
2,004
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%±0
  • AfD22.0%±0
  • SPD16.0%-1.0
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • BSW5.5%-0.5
  • Linke5.0%+1.0
  • FDP4.5%+0.5
  • Others4.0%-1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Feb 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 31 Jan 2025 to 3 Feb 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Feb 2025, SPD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.9 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 3 Feb 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.9average 20.1
  • BSW +0.8average 4.7
  • Linke +0.7average 4.3
  • Grüne -0.6average 13.6
  • FDP +0.6average 3.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 30.3
  • SPD +0.3average 15.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 207 seatsAfD: 151 seatsSPD: 110 seatsGrüne: 90 seatsBSW: 38 seatsLinke: 34 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU207
  • AfD151
  • SPD110
  • Grüne90
  • BSW38
  • Linke34
  • CDU/CSU + AfD358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD317 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne351 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW335 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + Linke331 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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