Single poll

INSA poll of 30 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
30 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,001
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%-1.0
  • AfD22.0%±0
  • SPD17.0%+1.5
  • Grüne13.0%+0.5
  • BSW6.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%-0.5
  • Linke4.0%-0.5
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jan 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 22.0%. 1,001 people were surveyed from 30 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Jan 2025, SPD gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.9 points higher and CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.9average 20.1
  • CDU/CSU -1.6average 30.6
  • BSW +1.3average 4.7
  • SPD +1.0average 16.0
  • Grüne -0.7average 13.7
  • FDP +0.2average 3.8
  • Linke +0.2average 3.8
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 210 seatsAfD: 160 seatsSPD: 123 seatsGrüne: 94 seatsBSW: 43 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU210
  • AfD160
  • SPD123
  • Grüne94
  • BSW43
  • CDU/CSU + AfD370 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD333 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne377 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW347 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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