INSA poll of 20 January 2025 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 17 to 20 Jan 2025
- Respondents
- 2,008
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.0%±0
- AfD21.5%+0.5
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke4.0%±0
- Others4.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Jan 2025.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.5%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 17 to 20 Jan 2025, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Jan 2025, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower and BSW 2.0 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -2.2average 31.2
- BSW +2.0average 5.0
- AfD +1.9average 19.6
- FDP +1.0average 4.0
- Grüne -0.7average 13.7
- Linke +0.7average 3.3
- SPD -0.1average 16.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU200
- AfD148
- SPD110
- Grüne90
- BSW48
- FDP34
- CDU/CSU + AfD348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne400 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW358 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.