Single poll

INSA poll of 18 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
13 to 17 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,206
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU29.0%-2.0
  • AfD21.0%-1.0
  • SPD16.0%+1.0
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%+0.5
  • FDP5.0%+1.0
  • Linke4.0%+0.5
  • Others5.0%±0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Jan 2025.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.0%, followed by AfD on 21.0%. 1,206 people were surveyed from 13 to 17 Jan 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Jan 2025, CDU/CSU loses 2.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.2 points lower and BSW 2.0 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.2average 31.2
  • BSW +2.0average 5.0
  • AfD +1.4average 19.6
  • FDP +1.0average 4.0
  • Grüne -0.7average 13.7
  • Linke +0.7average 3.3
  • SPD -0.1average 16.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 201 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 90 seatsBSW: 48 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU201
  • AfD145
  • SPD111
  • Grüne90
  • BSW48
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + Grüne402 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + BSW360 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD + FDP347 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne346 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW339 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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