Single poll

INSA poll of 5 January 2025 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
30 Dec 2024 to 3 Jan 2025
Respondents
1,201
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%-0.5
  • SPD16.0%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • BSW7.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%+0.5
  • Linke3.0%-1.0
  • Others6.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Dec 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,201 people were surveyed from 30 Dec 2024 to 3 Jan 2025, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Dec 2024, Grüne gains 1.0 points, Linke loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher and BSW 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Jan 2025. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.6average 18.4
  • BSW +1.6average 5.4
  • CDU/CSU -0.7average 31.7
  • Grüne -0.5average 13.5
  • FDP +0.4average 3.6
  • SPD -0.2average 16.2
  • Linke -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 224 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 94 seatsBSW: 51 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU224
  • AfD145
  • SPD116
  • Grüne94
  • BSW51
  • CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne318 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne355 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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