Single poll

INSA poll of 28 December 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
23 to 27 Dec 2024
Respondents
1,002
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%±0
  • AfD20.0%+0.5
  • SPD17.0%+1.0
  • Grüne12.0%-0.5
  • BSW7.0%-1.0
  • FDP4.0%-1.0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Dec 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,002 people were surveyed from 23 to 27 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 23 Dec 2024, SPD gains 1.0 points, BSW loses 1.0 points, FDP loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.8 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 28 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.8average 18.2
  • Grüne -1.4average 13.4
  • BSW +1.4average 5.6
  • CDU/CSU -0.9average 31.9
  • SPD +0.7average 16.3
  • FDP +0.4average 3.6
  • Linke -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 224 seatsAfD: 145 seatsSPD: 123 seatsGrüne: 87 seatsBSW: 51 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU224
  • AfD145
  • SPD123
  • Grüne87
  • BSW51
  • CDU/CSU + AfD369 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne355 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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