INSA poll of 23 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 20 to 23 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 2,010
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-1.0
- AfD19.5%-0.5
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne12.5%+0.5
- BSW8.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others5.0%+1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Dec 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 20 to 23 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Dec 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 2.4 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.4average 5.6
- FDP +1.4average 3.6
- AfD +1.3average 18.2
- CDU/CSU -0.9average 31.9
- Grüne -0.9average 13.4
- SPD -0.3average 16.3
- Linke -0.2average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU212
- AfD133
- SPD110
- Grüne86
- BSW55
- FDP34
- CDU/CSU + AfD345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD322 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne329 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.