INSA poll of 21 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 19 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 1,205
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+0.5
- AfD20.0%+0.5
- SPD16.0%-0.5
- Grüne12.0%+0.5
- BSW8.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%+0.5
- Others4.0%-1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 16 to 19 Dec 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Dec 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 2.2 points higher and AfD 1.9 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.2average 5.8
- AfD +1.9average 18.1
- FDP +1.3average 3.7
- Grüne -1.1average 13.1
- SPD -0.1average 16.1
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
- CDU/CSU ±0average 32.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU217
- AfD136
- SPD108
- Grüne81
- BSW54
- FDP34
- CDU/CSU + AfD353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD325 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW352 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.