INSA poll of 16 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 13 to 16 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.5%+0.5
- AfD19.5%-0.5
- SPD16.5%-0.5
- Grüne11.5%+0.5
- BSW8.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Others5.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Dec 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.5%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 13 to 16 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 14 Dec 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 2.2 points higher and AfD 1.8 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.2average 5.8
- AfD +1.8average 17.7
- Grüne -1.6average 13.1
- FDP +1.1average 3.9
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 32.2
- Linke -0.4average 2.9
- SPD +0.2average 16.3
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU216
- AfD133
- SPD113
- Grüne79
- BSW55
- FDP34
- CDU/CSU + AfD349 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW350 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP329 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne325 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.