INSA poll of 2 December 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 29 Nov 2024 to 2 Dec 2024
- Respondents
- 2,003
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.5%-0.5
- AfD18.5%+0.5
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.5%-0.5
- FDP4.5%-0.5
- Linke3.5%+0.5
- Others5.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Nov 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.5%, followed by AfD on 18.5%. 2,003 people were surveyed from 29 Nov 2024 to 2 Dec 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Nov 2024, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Dec 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.6average 33.1
- BSW +1.4average 6.1
- Grüne +1.1average 11.9
- SPD +1.0average 15.0
- FDP +0.4average 4.1
- AfD +0.3average 18.2
- Linke +0.3average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU229
- AfD135
- SPD116
- Grüne95
- BSW55
- CDU/CSU + AfD364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne324 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne346 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.