Single poll

INSA poll of 23 November 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
18 to 21 Nov 2024
Respondents
1,203
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU32.0%±0
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD14.0%-2.0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%-0.5
  • FDP5.0%+0.5
  • Linke4.0%+0.5
  • Others8.0%+1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Nov 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,203 people were surveyed from 18 to 21 Nov 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 18 Nov 2024, SPD loses 2.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 23 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +1.1average 17.9
  • SPD -1.1average 15.1
  • CDU/CSU -1.0average 33.0
  • FDP +0.9average 4.1
  • Linke +0.7average 3.3
  • Grüne -0.6average 11.6
  • BSW +0.3average 6.7
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 229 seatsAfD: 136 seatsSPD: 100 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsBSW: 50 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU229
  • AfD136
  • SPD100
  • Grüne79
  • BSW50
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD365 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW358 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP344 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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