INSA poll of 18 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 18 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 2,008
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%±0
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%+1.0
- BSW7.5%-0.5
- FDP4.5%+0.5
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Others6.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Nov 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,008 people were surveyed from 15 to 18 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Nov 2024, Grüne gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 18 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.4average 17.6
- CDU/CSU -1.3average 33.3
- BSW +0.5average 7.0
- SPD +0.4average 15.6
- Grüne -0.4average 11.4
- FDP +0.3average 4.2
- Linke +0.3average 3.2
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU236
- AfD140
- SPD118
- Grüne81
- BSW55
- CDU/CSU + AfD376 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD354 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne317 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne339 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.