INSA poll of 12 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 11 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 3,009
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.5%+0.5
- AfD19.5%+0.5
- SPD15.5%+0.5
- Grüne11.5%+1.5
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%+1.0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Others5.5%-3.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Nov 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.5%, followed by AfD on 19.5%. 3,009 people were surveyed from 8 to 11 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Nov 2024, Grüne gains 1.5 points, FDP gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.1 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 12 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.1average 17.4
- FDP +0.8average 4.2
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 33.1
- Grüne +0.3average 11.2
- Linke +0.3average 3.2
- SPD -0.2average 15.7
- BSW -0.1average 7.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU225
- AfD135
- SPD107
- Grüne80
- BSW48
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD332 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP340 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.