INSA poll of 5 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 1 to 4 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 2,005
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%±0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD15.5%-0.5
- Grüne10.5%+0.5
- BSW8.0%±0
- FDP4.5%+0.5
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Others8.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Nov 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,005 people were surveyed from 1 to 4 Nov 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 2 Nov 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +0.9average 17.1
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 32.7
- FDP +0.7average 3.8
- BSW +0.4average 7.6
- Grüne -0.3average 10.8
- Linke +0.3average 3.2
- SPD -0.2average 15.7
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU240
- AfD135
- SPD116
- Grüne79
- BSW60
- CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne319 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne330 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.