INSA poll of 2 November 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024
- Respondents
- 1,202
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%+1.0
- AfD18.0%-1.0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne10.0%-1.0
- BSW8.0%-1.0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke4.0%+1.5
- Others8.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Oct 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,202 people were surveyed from 28 Oct 2024 to 1 Nov 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Oct 2024, Linke gains 1.5 points, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Nov 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Linke +1.0average 3.0
- CDU/CSU -0.8average 32.8
- Grüne -0.7average 10.7
- AfD +0.6average 17.4
- SPD +0.5average 15.5
- BSW +0.4average 7.6
- FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU240
- AfD135
- SPD120
- Grüne75
- BSW60
- CDU/CSU + AfD375 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD360 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW375 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne330 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.