Single poll

INSA poll of 26 October 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
21 to 25 Oct 2024
Respondents
1,204
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-0.5
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-1.5
  • Grüne11.0%+1.0
  • BSW9.0%±0
  • FDP4.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%+0.5
  • Others9.0%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Oct 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,204 people were surveyed from 21 to 25 Oct 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 21 Oct 2024, SPD loses 1.5 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 2.1 points lower and AfD 1.6 points higher.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 26 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • CDU/CSU -2.1average 32.1
  • AfD +1.6average 17.4
  • BSW +1.2average 7.8
  • SPD -0.5average 15.5
  • Grüne -0.2average 11.2
  • FDP +0.2average 3.8
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 225 seatsAfD: 142 seatsSPD: 113 seatsGrüne: 83 seatsBSW: 67 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU225
  • AfD142
  • SPD113
  • Grüne83
  • BSW67
  • CDU/CSU + AfD367 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD338 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW375 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne338 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW322 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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