INSA poll of 21 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 18 to 21 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 2,006
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.5%-0.5
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD16.5%+0.5
- Grüne10.0%±0
- BSW9.0%±0
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Others8.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Oct 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 18 to 21 Oct 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 19 Oct 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has CDU/CSU 1.6 points lower and AfD 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- CDU/CSU -1.6average 32.1
- AfD +1.5average 17.5
- BSW +1.2average 7.8
- Grüne -1.0average 11.0
- SPD +0.9average 15.6
- Linke -0.5average 3.0
- FDP +0.1average 3.9
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU226
- AfD141
- SPD122
- Grüne74
- BSW67
- CDU/CSU + AfD367 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW367 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne337 of 630
- AfD + SPD + BSW330 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.