INSA poll of 5 October 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 30 Sep 2024 to 4 Oct 2024
- Respondents
- 1,237
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%-0.5
- AfD20.0%+1.0
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- Grüne11.0%±0
- BSW8.0%-1.5
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke3.0%+0.5
- Others7.0%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Sep 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,237 people were surveyed from 30 Sep 2024 to 4 Oct 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 30 Sep 2024, BSW loses 1.5 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 5 Oct 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.6average 17.4
- CDU/CSU -1.4average 32.4
- SPD +0.9average 15.1
- BSW +0.2average 7.8
- Grüne -0.1average 11.1
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU227
- AfD146
- SPD117
- Grüne81
- BSW59
- CDU/CSU + AfD373 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD344 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW367 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne344 of 630
- AfD + SPD + BSW322 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.