INSA poll of 30 September 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 27 to 30 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.5%-0.5
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%±0
- BSW9.5%-0.5
- FDP4.0%±0
- Linke2.5%-0.5
- Others7.5%+1.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Sep 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.5%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 27 to 30 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 Sep 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 1.6 points higher and BSW 1.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.6average 17.4
- BSW +1.5average 8.0
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 32.6
- Linke -0.6average 3.1
- Grüne -0.4average 11.4
- SPD +0.2average 14.8
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU231
- AfD139
- SPD110
- Grüne80
- BSW70
- CDU/CSU + AfD370 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW381 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne329 of 630
- AfD + SPD + BSW319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.