INSA poll of 21 September 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 16 to 19 Sep 2024
- Respondents
- 1,202
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU32.0%-1.0
- AfD20.0%+0.5
- SPD15.0%+1.0
- Grüne10.0%±0
- BSW10.0%±0
- FDP4.0%-0.5
- Linke2.0%-0.5
- Others7.0%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Sep 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 32.0%, followed by AfD on 20.0%. 1,202 people were surveyed from 16 to 19 Sep 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Sep 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, SPD gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.6 points higher and BSW 2.2 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 21 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +2.6average 17.4
- BSW +2.2average 7.8
- Grüne -1.3average 11.3
- Linke -1.1average 3.1
- CDU/CSU -0.7average 32.7
- SPD +0.4average 14.6
- FDP ±0average 4.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU232
- AfD145
- SPD109
- Grüne72
- BSW72
- CDU/CSU + AfD377 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD341 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW376 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
- AfD + SPD + BSW326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.