Single poll

INSA poll of 2 September 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
30 Aug 2024 to 2 Sep 2024
Respondents
2,002
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU31.5%+0.5
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-1.0
  • Grüne10.5%-0.5
  • BSW9.5%+0.5
  • FDP4.5%+0.5
  • Linke2.5%-0.5
  • Others7.5%+0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 31 Aug 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.5%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 30 Aug 2024 to 2 Sep 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 31 Aug 2024, SPD loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has AfD 2.4 points higher and Grüne 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Sep 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • AfD +2.4average 16.6
  • Grüne -1.7average 12.2
  • BSW +1.7average 7.8
  • Linke -0.5average 3.0
  • FDP -0.4average 4.9
  • CDU/CSU -0.1average 31.6
  • SPD +0.1average 14.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 232 seatsAfD: 140 seatsSPD: 111 seatsGrüne: 77 seatsBSW: 70 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU232
  • AfD140
  • SPD111
  • Grüne77
  • BSW70
  • CDU/CSU + AfD372 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD343 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW379 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne328 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + BSW321 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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