INSA poll of 27 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 22 to 26 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,203
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
- AfD18.0%+1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%+0.5
- BSW10.0%+1.0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%-0.5
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jul 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 1,203 people were surveyed from 22 to 26 Jul 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 22 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, BSW gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 2.5 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +2.5average 7.5
- Grüne -1.4average 12.4
- CDU/CSU -1.0average 31.0
- AfD +0.9average 17.1
- SPD +0.6average 14.4
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU213
- AfD127
- SPD106
- Grüne78
- BSW71
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD319 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.