INSA poll of 22 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 19 to 22 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 2,010
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne10.5%-0.5
- BSW9.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.5%+0.5
- Others9.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 20 Jul 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,010 people were surveyed from 19 to 22 Jul 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 20 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.1 points lower and BSW 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 22 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -2.1average 12.6
- BSW +1.6average 7.4
- SPD +0.6average 14.4
- Linke +0.5average 3.0
- AfD +0.2average 16.8
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 31.1
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU223
- AfD122
- SPD108
- Grüne76
- BSW65
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD331 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.