INSA poll of 20 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 15 to 19 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 1,207
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU30.0%-1.0
- AfD17.0%-1.0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne11.0%-0.5
- BSW9.0%+0.5
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Others10.0%+2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Jul 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,207 people were surveyed from 15 to 19 Jul 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 16 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU loses 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.6 points lower and BSW 1.6 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 20 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.6average 12.6
- BSW +1.6average 7.4
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 31.1
- SPD +0.6average 14.4
- AfD +0.2average 16.8
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU217
- AfD123
- SPD109
- Grüne80
- BSW65
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP333 of 630
- CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP318 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.