INSA poll of 16 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 15 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 2,500
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
- AfD18.0%±0
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne11.5%-0.5
- BSW8.5%-0.5
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%+1.0
- Others8.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Jul 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 18.0%. 2,500 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 Jul 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Jul 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, Linke gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- AfD +1.2average 16.8
- Grüne -1.1average 12.6
- BSW +1.1average 7.4
- SPD +0.6average 14.4
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 31.1
- FDP -0.1average 5.1
- Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU220
- AfD128
- SPD106
- Grüne81
- BSW60
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD348 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.