Single poll

INSA poll of 8 July 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD
Fieldwork period
5 to 8 Jul 2024
Respondents
2,007
Method
Online
  • CDU/CSU30.5%+0.5
  • AfD17.5%-0.5
  • SPD15.0%±0
  • Grüne11.0%±0
  • BSW8.5%-0.5
  • FDP5.5%+0.5
  • Linke3.0%+1.0
  • Freie Wähler1.5%
  • Others7.5%-2.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 Jul 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by AfD on 17.5%. 2,007 people were surveyed from 5 to 8 Jul 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 Jul 2024, Linke gains 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.8 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 8 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.8average 12.8
  • BSW +1.2average 7.3
  • Freie Wähler -1.2average 2.7
  • AfD +0.5average 17.0
  • SPD +0.2average 14.8
  • FDP +0.2average 5.3
  • CDU/CSU -0.1average 30.6
  • Linke ±0average 3.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 219 seatsAfD: 125 seatsSPD: 107 seatsGrüne: 79 seatsBSW: 61 seatsFDP: 39 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU219
  • AfD125
  • SPD107
  • Grüne79
  • BSW61
  • FDP39
  • CDU/CSU + AfD344 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW359 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP337 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + BSW + FDP319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

Table as CSV

To download we need your e-mail address once. After that every table on the site downloads directly.