INSA poll of 1 July 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 28 Jun 2024 to 1 Jul 2024
- Respondents
- 2,006
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.5%-0.5
- AfD17.5%+0.5
- SPD15.0%±0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- BSW8.5%-0.5
- FDP5.5%-0.5
- Linke2.5%+0.5
- Freie Wähler2.0%±0
- Others7.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jun 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by AfD on 17.5%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 28 Jun 2024 to 1 Jul 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 29 Jun 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has BSW 1.7 points higher.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jul 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +1.7average 6.8
- CDU/CSU -1.1average 30.6
- Grüne -0.9average 12.9
- AfD +0.7average 16.8
- Freie Wähler -0.7average 2.7
- FDP +0.6average 4.9
- Linke -0.6average 3.1
- SPD -0.1average 15.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU211
- AfD125
- SPD108
- Grüne86
- BSW61
- FDP39
- CDU/CSU + AfD336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD319 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW358 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP336 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.