Single poll

INSA poll of 16 June 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
10 to 14 Jun 2024
Respondents
1,205
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+1.0
  • AfD17.0%+1.0
  • SPD16.0%+0.5
  • Grüne11.0%-1.0
  • BSW7.0%-0.5
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler2.0%-0.5
  • Others8.0%-0.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Jun 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 10 to 14 Jun 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 Jun 2024, CDU/CSU gains 1.0 points, AfD gains 1.0 points, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 2.3 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 16 Jun 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -2.3average 13.3
  • Freie Wähler -0.8average 2.8
  • CDU/CSU +0.7average 30.3
  • SPD +0.4average 15.6
  • AfD +0.3average 16.7
  • BSW +0.3average 6.7
  • Linke -0.2average 3.2
  • FDP ±0average 5.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 224 seatsAfD: 123 seatsSPD: 116 seatsGrüne: 80 seatsBSW: 51 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU224
  • AfD123
  • SPD116
  • Grüne80
  • BSW51
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW355 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP340 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne319 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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