INSA poll of 4 June 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 31 May 2024 to 3 Jun 2024
- Respondents
- 2,002
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.5%-0.5
- SPD16.0%±0
- AfD15.5%-0.5
- Grüne12.0%±0
- BSW7.5%+0.5
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.5%+0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%-0.5
- Others7.5%+0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Jun 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 2,002 people were surveyed from 31 May 2024 to 3 Jun 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 1 Jun 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 4 Jun 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.5average 13.5
- BSW +1.4average 6.1
- AfD -1.1average 16.6
- Linke +0.2average 3.3
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 2.6
- CDU/CSU ±0average 30.5
- SPD ±0average 16.0
- FDP ±0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU222
- SPD117
- AfD113
- Grüne87
- BSW55
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD335 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW364 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP345 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne317 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.