INSA poll of 1 June 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD am Sonntag
- Fieldwork period
- 27 to 31 May 2024
- Respondents
- 1,205
- Method
- Telefon & Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%+0.5
- SPD16.0%+1.0
- AfD16.0%-1.0
- Grüne12.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%+0.5
- Others7.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 May 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by SPD on 16.0%. 1,205 people were surveyed from 27 to 31 May 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 28 May 2024, SPD gains 1.0 points, AfD loses 1.0 points.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.5 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 1 Jun 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.5average 13.5
- BSW +0.9average 6.1
- AfD -0.6average 16.6
- CDU/CSU +0.5average 30.5
- Freie Wähler +0.4average 2.6
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
- SPD +0.1average 15.9
- FDP ±0average 5.0
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU224
- SPD116
- AfD116
- Grüne87
- BSW51
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + SPD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP347 of 630
- SPD + AfD + Grüne319 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.