Single poll

INSA poll of 11 May 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
6 to 10 May 2024
Respondents
1,247
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-0.5
  • AfD17.0%-1.0
  • SPD15.0%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%+1.0
  • BSW7.0%-0.5
  • FDP5.0%±0
  • Linke4.0%+0.5
  • Freie Wähler2.0%-0.5
  • Others7.0%+1.5

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 May 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 1,247 people were surveyed from 6 to 10 May 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 6 May 2024, AfD loses 1.0 points, Grüne gains 1.0 points.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +1.2average 5.8
  • Grüne -1.0average 14.0
  • Linke +0.7average 3.3
  • Freie Wähler -0.7average 2.7
  • CDU/CSU -0.6average 30.6
  • SPD -0.5average 15.5
  • AfD -0.4average 17.4
  • FDP +0.1average 4.9
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 217 seatsAfD: 123 seatsSPD: 109 seatsGrüne: 94 seatsBSW: 51 seatsFDP: 36 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU217
  • AfD123
  • SPD109
  • Grüne94
  • BSW51
  • FDP36
  • CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW362 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP347 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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