INSA poll of 14 May 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 10 to 13 May 2024
- Respondents
- 2,087
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.5%+0.5
- AfD17.0%±0
- SPD15.5%+0.5
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%+0.5
- Others6.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 May 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by AfD on 17.0%. 2,087 people were surveyed from 10 to 13 May 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 11 May 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 14 May 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.1average 14.1
- BSW +1.1average 5.9
- AfD -0.4average 17.4
- FDP +0.2average 4.8
- Linke +0.2average 3.3
- CDU/CSU -0.1average 30.6
- SPD -0.1average 15.6
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 2.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU218
- AfD122
- SPD111
- Grüne93
- BSW50
- FDP36
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD329 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW361 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP347 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.