INSA poll of 30 April 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 26 to 29 Apr 2024
- Respondents
- 2,004
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.5%+0.5
- AfD18.5%+0.5
- SPD16.5%+0.5
- Grüne12.5%-0.5
- BSW7.0%±0
- FDP5.0%±0
- Linke3.5%-0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%+0.5
- Others5.0%-1.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Apr 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by AfD on 18.5%. 2,004 people were surveyed from 26 to 29 Apr 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Apr 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.6 points lower.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 30 Apr 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.6average 14.1
- AfD +1.4average 17.1
- BSW +1.2average 5.8
- SPD +0.6average 15.9
- CDU/CSU -0.4average 29.9
- FDP +0.2average 4.8
- Linke +0.1average 3.4
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 2.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU209
- AfD131
- SPD117
- Grüne88
- BSW50
- FDP35
- CDU/CSU + AfD340 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD326 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW347 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne336 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP332 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.