INSA poll of 15 April 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 12 to 15 Apr 2024
- Respondents
- 2,006
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU29.5%-0.5
- AfD18.5%+0.5
- SPD16.0%±0
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW6.5%+0.5
- FDP6.0%+1.0
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler2.5%+0.5
- Others5.0%-2.0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Apr 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 29.5%, followed by AfD on 18.5%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 12 to 15 Apr 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 13 Apr 2024, FDP gains 1.0 points.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 15 Apr 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- FDP +1.4average 4.6
- AfD +1.1average 17.4
- Grüne -0.9average 13.9
- CDU/CSU -0.6average 30.1
- BSW +0.4average 6.1
- Linke -0.3average 3.3
- SPD +0.1average 15.9
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 2.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU208
- AfD130
- SPD113
- Grüne91
- BSW46
- FDP42
- CDU/CSU + AfD338 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD321 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW345 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP341 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne334 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.