Single poll

INSA poll of 9 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
4 to 8 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,249
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU31.0%+0.5
  • AfD19.0%-0.5
  • SPD15.0%+0.5
  • Grüne12.0%-1.0
  • BSW7.0%+0.5
  • FDP5.0%-0.5
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler2.0%-0.5
  • Others6.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Mar 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,249 people were surveyed from 4 to 8 Mar 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 4 Mar 2024, Grüne loses 1.0 points.

Compared with the average of the other pollsters on the same day, INSA has Grüne 1.7 points lower.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 9 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • Grüne -1.7average 13.7
  • CDU/CSU +0.9average 30.1
  • BSW +0.6average 6.4
  • Freie Wähler -0.6average 2.6
  • AfD +0.4average 18.6
  • SPD -0.2average 15.2
  • FDP +0.2average 4.8
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 219 seatsAfD: 135 seatsSPD: 106 seatsGrüne: 85 seatsBSW: 50 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU219
  • AfD135
  • SPD106
  • Grüne85
  • BSW50
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD325 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP339 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne326 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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