INSA poll of 11 March 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 8 to 11 Mar 2024
- Respondents
- 2,079
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU31.0%±0
- AfD18.5%-0.5
- SPD14.5%-0.5
- Grüne12.5%+0.5
- BSW6.5%-0.5
- FDP5.5%+0.5
- Linke3.5%+0.5
- Freie Wähler2.5%+0.5
- Others5.5%-0.5
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Mar 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 31.0%, followed by AfD on 18.5%. 2,079 people were surveyed from 8 to 11 Mar 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 9 Mar 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 11 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- Grüne -1.2average 13.7
- CDU/CSU +0.9average 30.1
- SPD -0.7average 15.2
- FDP +0.7average 4.8
- Linke +0.4average 3.1
- AfD -0.1average 18.6
- BSW +0.1average 6.4
- Freie Wähler -0.1average 2.6
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU221
- AfD132
- SPD103
- Grüne89
- BSW46
- FDP39
- CDU/CSU + AfD353 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD324 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW356 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP349 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne324 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.