Single poll

INSA poll of 2 March 2024 for the federal election

Commissioned by
BILD am Sonntag
Fieldwork period
26 Feb 2024 to 1 Mar 2024
Respondents
1,200
Method
Telefon & Online
  • CDU/CSU30.0%-0.5
  • AfD19.0%±0
  • SPD15.0%-0.5
  • Grüne13.0%±0
  • BSW7.0%-0.5
  • FDP5.0%+0.5
  • Linke3.0%±0
  • Freie Wähler3.0%±0
  • Others5.0%+1.0

Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Feb 2024.

In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.0%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 1,200 people were surveyed from 26 Feb 2024 to 1 Mar 2024, method Telefon & Online, commissioned by BILD am Sonntag.

Compared with the previous INSA poll of 27 Feb 2024, no party moves by more than one point.

All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.

Context

Deviation from the average of the other pollsters

Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 2 Mar 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.

  • BSW +0.7average 6.3
  • Grüne -0.5average 13.5
  • Freie Wähler +0.4average 2.6
  • CDU/CSU -0.3average 30.3
  • FDP +0.3average 4.7
  • AfD +0.2average 18.8
  • Linke -0.1average 3.1
  • SPD ±0average 15.0
Seat projection

Seat projection from this poll

630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.

CDU/CSU: 212 seatsAfD: 135 seatsSPD: 106 seatsGrüne: 92 seatsBSW: 50 seatsFDP: 35 seatsMajority from 316630of 630 seats
  • CDU/CSU212
  • AfD135
  • SPD106
  • Grüne92
  • BSW50
  • FDP35
  • CDU/CSU + AfD347 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + SPD318 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + BSW354 of 630
  • CDU/CSU + Grüne + FDP339 of 630
  • AfD + SPD + Grüne333 of 630
More

More polls

Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.

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