INSA poll of 27 February 2024 for the federal election
- Commissioned by
- BILD
- Fieldwork period
- 23 to 26 Feb 2024
- Respondents
- 2,006
- Method
- Online
- CDU/CSU30.5%+0.5
- AfD19.0%±0
- SPD15.5%+0.5
- Grüne13.0%±0
- BSW7.5%-0.5
- FDP4.5%-0.5
- Linke3.0%±0
- Freie Wähler3.0%±0
- Others4.0%±0
Dashed line: electoral threshold of 5%. Change compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Feb 2024.
In this poll INSA has CDU/CSU ahead on 30.5%, followed by AfD on 19.0%. 2,006 people were surveyed from 23 to 26 Feb 2024, method Online, commissioned by BILD.
Compared with the previous INSA poll of 25 Feb 2024, no party moves by more than one point.
All parties are within 1.5 points of the average of the other pollsters.
Deviation from the average of the other pollsters
Rolling 45-day average of the other pollsters on 27 Feb 2024. Positive: this poll is above it.
- BSW +1.1average 6.4
- SPD +0.5average 15.0
- Grüne -0.5average 13.5
- Freie Wähler +0.4average 2.6
- CDU/CSU +0.3average 30.2
- AfD +0.1average 18.9
- FDP -0.1average 4.6
- Linke -0.1average 3.1
Seat projection from this poll
630 seats by Sainte-Laguë, five per cent threshold, waived for parties winning at least three constituencies.
- CDU/CSU225
- AfD140
- SPD114
- Grüne96
- BSW55
- CDU/CSU + AfD365 of 630
- CDU/CSU + SPD339 of 630
- CDU/CSU + Grüne321 of 630
- AfD + SPD + Grüne350 of 630
More polls
Data from dawum.de (ODbL), analysis by wahlergebnisse.io. Individual polls carry a margin of error of roughly two to three points for the larger parties.